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Patrick Schwerdtfeger discusses the impact of demographics on future economic growth for countries around the world including America, Latin America, Europe, Russia, China, Japan, India, Pakistan and the Middle East and North Africa. In particular, he looks at population growth, the age profile and net exports as a way to predict expected economic growth between 2010 and 2050.
This type of analysis is extremely valuable for people interested in international business. Their interest might be motivated by business interests, international investment objectives or thought leadership around the world. Regardless how you use this information, it will allow you to literally predict the future for the economic performance of countries all around the world.
The conclusion is that the developed nations all have a “youth deficit” while the developing Muslim nations all have a “youth bulge” and that has massive implications for their respective economic forecasts. Nations with a youth deficit will have a disproportionate number of older people which will act as a drain on economic activity. Nations with a youth bulge will have more political volatility and social unrest, but they will also have more impressive growth in the years ahead.
