Feb 252013
 

According to Patrick’s proprietary model, the United Kingdom will struggle with below average growth for the foreseeable future. The country will do better than a lot of other European nations, but not by much. The population is still growing which is good for economic growth (all those people have to buy food, clothing, shelter and energy) but it’s growing slowly.

United Kingdom Projected GDP Growth

The good news is that the United Kingdom will enjoy political stability amidst the anemic growth. Political protests and social unrest are far more likely when there is a “youth bulge” (or baby boom) in place. Young people tend to be underemployed and financially frustrated, and they’re willing to express their frustrations publicly. The UK actually has a “youth deficit” at the moment, relative to the rest of the world, so all those older and wiser perspectives moderate the societal frustrations.

United Kingdom Political Volatility

The population in the United Kingdom, like the rest of Europe, is getting older. The median age is 41 and the life expectancy is 80. The population is expected to grow by 15% between 2010 and 2050 but the American population will grow by 29% during the same time period. The world population will grow by 34%, so the UK population is definitely growing less than the average country around the world. The UK has a fairly active import / export sector and is running a trade deficit currently.

The UK “youth deficit” is clear in the graphic below. Relative to the rest of the world, the United Kingdom has significantly fewer young people but it moderates over the coming decades, not because UK families have more children but because developing countries have fewer. The UK also has a lot of older retired citizens and those people will strain the public purse through entitlement programs. And with persistently high government debt, those entitlement programs will need to be curtailed further in the years ahead. Overall, the UK will see positive growth over the years ahead but it will be slow going along the way.

Patrick is an award-winning author and keynote speaker who can speak about demographic trends affecting the United Kingdom at conferences and business events in London or other UK destinations.

 
DISCLAIMER: Projected results are NOT guaranteed. The forecasts for the United Kingdom above were calculated based on projected population data obtained from the World Bank website. The economic forecast used this demographic data along with adjusters for net exports, relative age distribution and per capita income projections. The political volatility forecast used the same demographic data along with adjusters for youth population percentage, projected economic growth and public government debt level. Please see the model methodology for more details.

Patrick Schwerdtfeger maintains a video blog entitled “Strategic Business Insights” and adds new videos on a regular basis. Some of the videos are ‘macro’ covering topics like global business trends and geopolitical dynamics. Others are ‘micro’ covering communication skills and your mental mindset. Access them here:
 

 
All of the countries covered by the economic forecasting model are ranked below. They are each linked to the country’s respective page, so please feel free to explore other countries you might be interested in.
 

Nigeria
India
Egypt
China
Saudi Arabia
Pakistan
Colombia
Australia
UAE
Turkey
Argentina
South Africa
Canada
USA
Brazil
UK
Russia
France
Germany
Spain
Greece
Italy
Japan
Pakistan
Egypt
South Africa
Colombia
Brazil
Turkey
India
Saudi Arabia
Argentina
Nigeria
USA
Japan
France
UK
China
Greece
Canada
UAE
Australia
Italy
Russia
Spain
Germany

 
Whether you agree with these forecasts or not, please leave your comments below for future readers. Thank you for visiting this page.
 

Jun 062012
 

 

Speaker Scam

UK Speaker SCAM: Church and/or University in the UK looking for a keynote speaker for an upcoming leadership workshop; Tier 5 Work Permit fees required via Western Union. Here’s the full story:

On May 15, 2012, I was solicited by a church in the UK (via my website) to speak at their upcoming leadership workshop. A series of emails went back and forth, containing various details and expectations. In order to speak there, I would need a Tier 5 Work Permit from the UK Border Agency and because the event was quickly approaching, I was introduced by email to someone at the parish who works for the UK Border Agency and can get expedited processing for my application.

I was emailed an official 52-page PDF application for a Tier 5 Work Permit with specific instructions on how to fill it out. The form is legitimate and you can find documentation online confirming that only a UK employer can submit such an application. Once I had filled it out and gotten passport photos made, I was asked to send 583 GBP via Western Union so she could submit the application and pay the fee in cash.

They said they had a sponsor and offered to pay me $10,000 USD as a speaking fee, along with all travel expenses. This seems high for a church but does fall within my standard fee structure (at least for domestic events), so it didn’t seem too unusual at the time. Here are all the names and email addresses of the people I communicated with:

  1. Reverend Michael Silver rev.michaelsilver@gmail.com
  2. Reverend Brian Moody revbrianmoody199@gmail.com
  3. Reverend Phil Dunning revphildunning@gmail.com
  4. Edward Smith eechurch@hotmail.com
  5. Patricia Coleman UK Border Agency p.coleman@workmail.com (real name verified by Western Union)
  6. Susan Aires Dransfield Novelty Company dransfieldnoveltyco@london.com
  7. Phylis Kamps 321-200-1024 (mobile)

Here is a blog post that details how these same people have done this dozens of times since 2010. At the time of this writing there are 94 comments on their post and I will be adding my own shortly. I have included a number of emails below so you can get an idea of how these people communicate.

Email #1: Initial Solicitation

Name: Rev.Michael Silver
Email: rev.michaelsilver@gmail.com

Message: I am Reverend Michael Silver , presiding Minister of the Emmanuel Evangelical (Baptist) Chapel, Newport, United Kingdom. We are pleased to inform you that we would like to engage you to speak at our Church Lunch event here in Newport coming up on the 1st of June and we are also arranging our ‘Leadership development Program’ workshop on the 2nd & 3rd of June 2012.

Please we would like you to convey to us your availability for one of the dates as it can fit in your schedule. Also, please we would as well appreciate if you get back in-touch with us in ample time so we can start corresponding the details.

Thank you and expecting to hear from you soon.

Remain Blessed
Reverend Michael Silver
+447031873786
Emmanuel Evangelical (Baptist) Chapel,
Rutland Place,
Newport,
NP20 2EL,
Wales.
United Kingdom

But you are a chosen race, a royal priesthood, a holy nation, a people for his own possession, that you may proclaim the excellencies of him who called you out of darkness into his marvelous light.
1 Peter 2:9.

Email #2: Initial Request for Money

Good day Patrick, I understand that you are Emmanuel Evangelical Church’s guest for their upcoming conference, Edward Smith informed me earlier, I have undergone this process for their guests in the past as well prior to this time as well so below are the details.

I have undergone this process for people prior to this time as well so below are the details. (It is a pity though that you do not have your Swiss passort intact and up-to-date as you would have been waived for this fee).

Our Government (United Kingdom) Main Application Fee for a UK work permit is £488 and £95 for homeland fee making an overall sum of £583, You should understand that as a United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand & European citizens holding their international passport, entrance permits are at a reduced fee at rate given above, other nationalities pay more. I will do the application and payment in your name at our Consulate and send you necessary binding documents.

Usually, It takes between 1-14 weeks to get a permit depending on the category such permit may fall into, But if we process expressly and I append the application as a staff it will take just about one week and a maximum of two weeks give or take some delays in courier or so since it is categorized as ‘ministerial/religious’ under the UK Tier 5 work permit, It will take a week and a few days to process. If you are ready to proceed (which I advise you should) We would as well need you to send to us the below stated documents.

Full Name of applicant:
Passport Number:
invitation Letter from Sponsor:

Now, you will have to make the application fees payment and I will later send you the official UK TIER 5 WORK PERMIT FORM and the UKBA SCREENING FORM as an allied country citizen you do not need to fill the immigration assessment form as you are already eligible. We might only need your thumbprints at the United kingdom border on entry into the UK.

Please, be swift with your response because you know documents after been processed by the UK immigration might delay a bit, give or take 2-3days, It would be advisable you start processes a bit ahead of time.

Have a Wonderful day.

Patricia Coleman.
United Kingdom Border Agency.
N.A.

p.coleman@workmail.com
790-871-7081

Email #3: Second Request for Money

Good Morning Reverend, Deacon Edward, At the start of work today, I was notified by the issuing dept. that Patrick’s work permit cannot be issued out as yet, Non-Briton Immigrants coming into the United Kingdom and taking up a legally paid job will need to secure their stay with a bond otherwise referred to as a repatriation fee, And since Patrick falls under such category as she is non-British immigrant, The Home office has required that such applicants pay a refundable sum of 2,500GBP as a ‘Bond’ to enact their stay. As soon as they get back to their respective countries, the fee will be paid back to them in full. This law has been in the books for a while but it wasn’t effective for a long time now, But the new excos at the Consul has decreed it should be applicable and be 100% effective henceforth for working immigrants applying for the work permit.

I am emailing you now so you can find a way to forward to me the funds so I can make the payments asap since you have advised that time is of essence in this application. I will forward to you the ‘bond holding letter’ in the name of the applicant which is Patrick, he will be able to claim the funds at the USA Consul when he gets back home.

Warren Germain already sent me the funds for his bond, He will get the documents today, I have forwarded to him the fedex tracking number so he could monitor as well (Just informing you).

Reverend, Edward, send the funds to me on Patrick’s behalf as he might be relunctant to send such amount of money, So I need you to forward the funds on his behalf, Once he is back in the USA the bond will be liquidated and you will negotiate on how to have the funds back.

PLEASE REPLY SOONEST !!!

Patricia Coleman.
United Kingdom Border Agency.
N.A.

ukba.patriciacoleman@workmail.com
790-871-7081

Final Notes

It should be noted that there were well over 50 or 60 emails involved in this process, involving Reverend Michael Silver, Edward Smith and Patricia Coleman. Many details were discussed. I was even sent a hotel confirmation at the Park Plaza Cardiff (Greyfriars Road, Cardiff, CF10 3AL, United Kingdom) along the way. So the whole thing appeared completely legitimate at the time. I would even say it was more organized than other events I have spoken at.

So, what can I say? They got me. I’m embarrassed. In the end, it’s not that big of a deal. The money transfer cost me $1048 USD (Western Union is a rip-off) so it’s not really that much money, but that’s not the point.

My speaking career has taken me to every major city in the USA and cities across Canada and Mexico, as well as destinations in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. I get many solicitations that seem “too good to be true” so I can’t really filter on that criteria. Here are the red flags which I ignored:

  1. Public email addresses only (gmail, hotmail and workmail).
  2. No mention of the leadership workshop on the church’s website.
  3. I was requested to send money urgently to an individual.

When I was invited to speak in India, I had to get a VISA first and it cost me $160 USD, but I made those arrangements directly with the Indian Consulate in San Francisco. So my learning point is that I will NEVER send money to an individual again.

I have filed a complaint with Western Union but have heard they can’t do much. It doesn’t really make sense to me. The person who picks up the funds has to show identification verifying their identity. That means there must be something the authorities can track. But who’s going to hunt that down? Anyway, if anything comes of it, I will update this post.

Also, it’s worth mentioning that the recipient DID pick up the funds in the UK. So I’m sure Patricia Coleman actually exists and I’m also sure she was in the UK on May 29, 2012.

Did this scam happen to you?

If you have had a similar experience, please tell your story in the comments below. I am publishing this post to hopefully help other speakers avoid this situation in the future. Thank you.
 

Apr 042012
 
London Keynote Speaker

Conference TEDx Speaker in London, England

Patrick Schwerdtfeger is available to speak in London as a leading authority on self-employment and global business trends. He’s the author of the award-winning book Marketing Shortcuts for the Self-Employed (2011, Wiley) and a regular speaker for Bloomberg TV. If you are planning a business conference at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre, the Congress Centre, the Mermaid Conference Centre or some other convention space in London, England, Patrick will deliver the excitement and buzz you’re looking for. As a motivational keynote speaker, his primary objective is to leave attendees inspired, energized and excited to improve their businesses.

 
Visit Patrick’s video blog and subscribe to be notified of future videos by clicking the button below.

 
Past clients include …

Conference in London

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General Information About London, England, for Meeting Planners

The most populous city in Europe with over 7.8 million as of 2010, London is located on England’s longest river, River Thames at the southern side of England. It is a leading alpha world city serving as a headquarter for domestic and international companies, most of which are included in the Fortune 500 companies; Bank of England, BBC and Lloyd’s of London among them. Conventions and conference can be held at some of London’s finest conference facilities like The Olympia Exhibition Center. In May of 2012, London held the IRB Women’s International Sevens tournament and later in July, it hosted the 2012 Summer Olympics. London will also host the FESPA event in 2013. Here is Patrick’s economic forecast for the United Kingdom.
 

 
2014 Business Conventions in London, England

During 2014, London will play host to numerous business events. Elite Business National Conference & Exhibition, hosted by Elite Business Event will be held in April At The Old Truman Brewery 91 Brick Ln, London E1 6QL. Mongolia Investment Summit, hosted by Resourceful Events will take place in April at Thistle Marble Arch Bryanston St, London, W1H 7EH. The Economics, Finance, MIS & International Business Research Conference, London, hosted by The Economics, Finance, MIS & International Business Research Conference, London will be held in July at The London Hilton on Park Lane. Marcus Evans Conferences will host 17th Annual Financial Sector Compensation and Benefits, in May at a venue yet to be announced, London.

2013 Business Conferences in London, United Kingdom

The city of London in United Kingdom will bring us various national and international conferences during 2013. These include the 11th London International Eating Disorders by the MA Healthcare Limited which will be held in March at the Institute of Education, University of London. Aside from that, the 2nd Annual Advances in Leadership Conference will take place in April at the London Metropolitan Business School. On the other hand, Media and Film 2013: The Third Annual London Film and Media Conference hosted by the Academic Conferences London will is taking place in June at the Institute of Education Conference Centre, University of London. Also, “The Economics, Finance, MIS & International Business Research Conference” of The Journal of American Business Review of Cambridge will be held in July at the London Hilton Hotel on Park Lane.

London Food Choices for Convention Attendees

While on a business conference in London, England, experience some of the local flavors at famous restaurants in the city like Le Café Anglais, Gordon Ramsay at Claridge’s, Inn the Park, and Rules. Le Café Anglais (Phone: 020-7221-1415) on Porchester Gardens W2 serves modern European cuisine with a twist. With London’s most celebrated chef in command, Gordon Ramsay at Claridge’s (Phone: 020-7499-0099) on Brook Street W1 serves the best flavors of French, British, and Irish dishes. A local cafe for an afternoon British tea, Inn the Park (Phone: 020-7451-9999) on St. James Park SW1 features unique dining set-ups: seats under the trees or tables on the new roof terrace. London’s oldest restaurant, Rules (Phone: 020-7836-5314) on Maiden Lane WC2 is known for its meat-leaning menu and its traditional puddings and custard.

London Attractions for Conference Delegates

If you have some spare time after attending a business conference in London, visit the major tourist attractions such as the British Museum, the Tower of London, Madame Tussauds and the Science Museum. If you want some insight into the ancient heritage of the country, then the British Museum on Russell Street is the place to visit. The Tower of London which happens to be one of the most famous buildings in the world is located at Tower Hill. One can come face to face with lots of famous faces in the world at Madame Tussauds located at Marylebone Road and the Science Museum which depicts several scientific wonders is located on Exhibition Road.