According to Patrick’s proprietary model, Canada will continue to grow at a moderate pace for the foreseeable future. The population is growing and the economy is well developed. Canada also has a growing energy sector. The oil sands in northern Alberta and British Columbia are booming and it’s contributing a lot to the country’s growth. It’s also adding to public coffers which allows Canada to support the country’s well being in other ways.
Canada will enjoy a relatively stable political environment during the coming decades. The country has a “youth deficit” relative to the rest of the world and the standard of living is high. A low ranking on the political volatility index doesn’t mean that one political party will monopolize the power structure for an extended period. Canada is a democratic country and, like any other democratic country, political parties rise and fall. The relatively low political volatility ranking means that Canada is unlikely to experience significant social unrest.
The interesting things to note below is the high median age and life expectancy in Canada, and the expected population growth of 28% between 2010 and 2050 with much of that coming from immigration. By comparison, the global population will grow by 34% during the same time period but much of that is coming from Asia and Africa. Within the developed world, the population growth is coming from Canada, America and Australia. Europe’s population is basically flat while Russia and Japan are both shrinking. So Canada has a good foundation for economic growth over the coming decades.
Like most developed nations, Canada has a “youth deficit” and a swelling number of older retired citizens. That will put a strain on public resources through entitlement programs. The country has already raised the retirement from 65 to 67 and will adjust their Old Age Pension Program starting in 2023. Canada also has a thriving import/export sector so domestic consumer spending accounts for only 57% of GDP. By comparison, consumer spending in America accounts for 72% of GDP.
Patrick is an award-winning author and keynote speaker who can speak about demographic trends affecting Canada at conferences and business events in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary or other Canadian destinations.
DISCLAIMER: Projected results are NOT guaranteed. The forecasts for Canada above were calculated based on projected population data obtained from the World Bank website. The economic forecast used this demographic data along with adjusters for net exports, relative age distribution and per capita income projections. The political volatility forecast used the same demographic data along with adjusters for youth population percentage, projected economic growth and public government debt level. Please see the model methodology for more details.
Patrick Schwerdtfeger maintains a video blog entitled “Strategic Business Insights” and adds new videos on a regular basis. Some of the videos are ‘macro’ covering topics like global business trends and geopolitical dynamics. Others are ‘micro’ covering communication skills and your mental mindset. Access them here:
All of the countries covered by the economic forecasting model are ranked below. They are each linked to the country’s respective page, so please feel free to explore other countries you might be interested in.
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