According to Patrick’s proprietary model, Egypt will experience strong economic growth during the next few decades. Keep in mind that this forecast attempts to predict economic performance between 2010 and 2050, a very long time period. Obviously, with the political turmoil in Egypt these days, the tourism industry has virtually disappeared and that has devastated the local economy. But in time, a new political reality will take shape and tourism will return. And with a population expected to grow by 52% between 2010 and 2050, the economy will grow accordingly.
Egypt has a significant “youth bulge” (or baby boom) right now and that youthful population is generally underemployed and financially frustrated. Those conditions are highly correlated with political volatility and social unrest. In fact, the entire Middle East / North African (MENA) region has a youth bulge and the protests and uprisings are understandable given those conditions. Interestingly, Egypt’s relative youth bulge (compared with the rest of the world) will completely disappear by 2050 so the current political volatility will likely moderate in 10 or 20 years.
The interesting thing below is Egypt’s young median age, massive expected population growth and trade deficit. The young population fuels social unrest but the population growth will fuel economic growth and that will mitigate tensions somewhat. Meanwhile, the trade deficit puts downward pressure on their currency and upward pressure on domestic inflation. Egypt has a challenging set of circumstances and it will be interesting to see how their future unfolds.
The fascinating thing below is the current youth bulge and how it completely disappears (relative to the global age distribution) by 2050. Although Egypt is clearly in a state of transition, it is also developing and that will lower fertility rates and slow population growth down the road. It’s also interesting to see how much of GDP is accounted for by consumer spending. A percentage this high is typical of any economy with a trade deficit (the American equivalent is 72%).
Patrick is an award-winning author and keynote speaker who can speak about demographic trends affecting Egypt at conferences and business events in Cairo or other Egyptian destinations.
DISCLAIMER: Projected results are NOT guaranteed. The forecasts for Egypt above were calculated based on projected population data obtained from the World Bank website. The economic forecast used this demographic data along with adjusters for net exports, relative age distribution and per capita income projections. The political volatility forecast used the same demographic data along with adjusters for youth population percentage, projected economic growth and public government debt level. Please see the model methodology for more details.
Patrick Schwerdtfeger maintains a video blog entitled “Strategic Business Insights” and adds new videos on a regular basis. Some of the videos are ‘macro’ covering topics like global business trends and geopolitical dynamics. Others are ‘micro’ covering communication skills and your mental mindset. Access them here:
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