According to Patrick’s proprietary model, the United Kingdom will struggle with below average growth for the foreseeable future. The country will do better than a lot of other European nations, but not by much. The population is still growing which is good for economic growth (all those people have to buy food, clothing, shelter and energy) but it’s growing slowly.
The good news is that the United Kingdom will enjoy political stability amidst the anemic growth. Political protests and social unrest are far more likely when there is a “youth bulge” (or baby boom) in place. Young people tend to be underemployed and financially frustrated, and they’re willing to express their frustrations publicly. The UK actually has a “youth deficit” at the moment, relative to the rest of the world, so all those older and wiser perspectives moderate the societal frustrations.
The population in the United Kingdom, like the rest of Europe, is getting older. The median age is 41 and the life expectancy is 80. The population is expected to grow by 15% between 2010 and 2050 but the American population will grow by 29% during the same time period. The world population will grow by 34%, so the UK population is definitely growing less than the average country around the world. The UK has a fairly active import / export sector and is running a trade deficit currently.
The UK “youth deficit” is clear in the graphic below. Relative to the rest of the world, the United Kingdom has significantly fewer young people but it moderates over the coming decades, not because UK families have more children but because developing countries have fewer. The UK also has a lot of older retired citizens and those people will strain the public purse through entitlement programs. And with persistently high government debt, those entitlement programs will need to be curtailed further in the years ahead. Overall, the UK will see positive growth over the years ahead but it will be slow going along the way.
Patrick is an award-winning author and keynote speaker who can speak about demographic trends affecting the United Kingdom at conferences and business events in London or other UK destinations.
DISCLAIMER: Projected results are NOT guaranteed. The forecasts for the United Kingdom above were calculated based on projected population data obtained from the World Bank website. The economic forecast used this demographic data along with adjusters for net exports, relative age distribution and per capita income projections. The political volatility forecast used the same demographic data along with adjusters for youth population percentage, projected economic growth and public government debt level. Please see the model methodology for more details.
Patrick Schwerdtfeger maintains a video blog entitled “Strategic Business Insights” and adds new videos on a regular basis. Some of the videos are ‘macro’ covering topics like global business trends and geopolitical dynamics. Others are ‘micro’ covering communication skills and your mental mindset. Access them here:
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