According to Patrick’s proprietary model, Argentina is expected to have moderate growth for the coming 30 years. The population is relatively young and is expected to grow at a steady pace. South America is developing and has exciting things on the horizon, especially in the northern countries of Brazil and Colombia, but Argentina will enjoy steady progress at the same time.
There’s going to be some bumps on the road for Argentina. The young people in the country will experience higher rates of unemployment because of the slow economic growth and will express their frustrations as a result. It may not digress into full blown social unrest and rioting but Argentina will have its share of protests along the way.
Argentina’s median age is just 30, significantly younger than most developed nations, but it’s life expectancy is still quite similar (America’s life expectancy is 78). The population is expected to grow by 24% between 2010 and 2050 while the global population grows 34% during the same time period. In 2011, Argentina also had a small trade surplus although that may change in the years ahead. These factors all contribute to the economic growth projections above.
Argentina has a fertility rate higher than most developed nations but significantly lower than Middle Eastern and African nations. The chart below compares Argentina’s age profile with the global average, so you can see that the country has a small relative “youth deficit” and a slightly above average number of older retired citizens. The more interesting thing is that the youth deficit actually grows over time (which is the opposite of most developing nations), but is still very close the the global average.
Patrick is an award-winning author and keynote speaker who can speak about demographic trends affecting Argentina at conferences and business events in Buenos Aires or other Argentinian destinations.
DISCLAIMER: Projected results are NOT guaranteed. The forecasts for Argentina above were calculated based on projected population data obtained from the World Bank website. The economic forecast used this demographic data along with adjusters for net exports, relative age distribution and per capita income projections. The political volatility forecast used the same demographic data along with adjusters for youth population percentage, projected economic growth and public government debt level. Please see the model methodology for more details.
Patrick Schwerdtfeger maintains a video blog entitled “Strategic Business Insights” and adds new videos on a regular basis. Some of the videos are ‘macro’ covering topics like global business trends and geopolitical dynamics. Others are ‘micro’ covering communication skills and your mental mindset. Access them here:
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