According to Patrick’s proprietary model, Brazil will experience low moderate growth between now and 2050. Clearly, with FIFA coming in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016, the immediate near-term looks good but the long-term outlook is hampered by slow population growth and an increasingly old age profile. Even in 2012, economic growth came in below expectations. Meanwhile, the South American continent is developing and Brazil is taking a leading role, emerging as a global player in many respects. The economy will grow overall, with good years and bad years along the way, but the country will not experience the explosive growth of many emerging Asian countries.
Brazil’s slow economic growth will fuel some political volatility. The calculation behind this forecast looks at Brazil’s youth population as of 2010 and does not account for the dropping fertility rate during the coming 35 years. And Brazil’s median age remains quite low, fueling political restlessness in the coming years. As the country develops further and the fertility rate drops, political volatility will recede as well.
Brazil currently has a relatively young population with a median age of just 29. As mentioned above, it will age over the years but at present, it remains fairly young. The population is expected to grow by just 12% between 2010 and 2050 while the global population grows by 34% and the American population grows by 29% during the same time period. In 2011, Brazil had a small trade deficit but that will likely change after 2016.
In 2010, Brazil’s age profile mirrored the global equivalent. But as Brazil develops further, the fertility rate will drop resulting in an increasing “youth deficit” over time. It is primarily this dropping fertility rate that will slow the country’s population growth.
Patrick is an award-winning author and keynote speaker who can speak about demographic trends affecting Brazil at conferences and business events in Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro or other Brazilian destinations.
DISCLAIMER: Projected results are NOT guaranteed. The forecasts for Brazil above were calculated based on projected population data obtained from the World Bank website. The economic forecast used this demographic data along with adjusters for net exports, relative age distribution and per capita income projections. The political volatility forecast used the same demographic data along with adjusters for youth population percentage, projected economic growth and public government debt level. Please see the model methodology for more details.
Patrick Schwerdtfeger maintains a video blog entitled “Strategic Business Insights” and adds new videos on a regular basis. Some of the videos are ‘macro’ covering topics like global business trends and geopolitical dynamics. Others are ‘micro’ covering communication skills and your mental mindset. Access them here:
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