Patrick Schwerdtfeger is a leading authority on global business trends and the economic analysis of countries around the world. Using readily available demographic information as well as consumer spending, government spending and net exports, Patrick is able to forecast economic performance for most countries around the world. A country’s population (combined with its standard of living) determines consumer spending, and consumer spending is the single largest component of GDP. Even better, population can be accurately predicted for decades, allowing for remarkably accurate GDP forecasts for 20 or 30 years into the future. Patrick is a regular speaker for Bloomberg TV and gave his first TEDx Talk in August 2012. Patrick is the author of the award-winning book “Marketing Shortcuts for the Self-Employed” (Wiley, 2011) and has spoken at hundreds of conventions and business conferences around the world.
Past speaking clients include:
Recent speaking destinations include:
Keynote Speech on Globalization and International Trade
Patrick uses readily available data inputs in innovative ways to quickly and easily evaluate economic opportunities in emerging economies around the world. For example, average people reach their peak spending years when they’re in the 40s. In America, the peak spending year is 47 but it’s lower in emerging economies. Also, people in their 20s generally have to contend with higher unemployment and are most likely to protest against the source of their perceived injustices. Finally, people in their 60s and 70s are those who are recipients of local entitlement programs. Combining these demographic realities with a country’s age profile and growth rates yields valuable information about expected GDP growth and political volatility.
Keynote Speech: Globalization Opportunities for Business
Large corporations looking to expand their operations in emerging economies like those in South America, the Middle East or the Asian Tigers need to evaluate opportunities at a strategic level before making significant investments. VISA requirements vary widely by country as does regulatory framework and public infrastructure. During a single 60-minute keynote, Patrick can enlighten your audience with a specific and tactical synopsis of the regions you may be considering. The information requirements for this type of analysis are readily available for all but the most remote countries.
Among the most important considerations for global expansion are expected GDP growth and political volatility. As mentioned above, political volatility can be predicted with demographic inputs while GDP growth can only come from one of three possible places.
- Population growth (increasing consumer spending)
- Income growth (increasing consumer spending)
- Export growth (selling to international customers)
In terms of long-term Macro Economic trends, these factors can be predicted as well. Any student of economics will recognize the following formula:
GDP = C + I + G + (X – M)
For those unfamiliar with this formula, each component is defined below:
- GDP = Gross Domestic Product
- C = Consumer Spending
- I = Business Investment
- G = Government Spending
- X = Exports
- M = Imports
Again, this information is readily available for most countries and a simple analysis of a country’s GDP composition yields valuable insights to the country’s prospects for growth in the future. For example, consumer spending in America accounts for over 70% of GDP. Meanwhile, consumer spending in China is roughly 34% while business investment accounts for over 40%, significantly more than the US. That investment will accelerate China’s transition from 3rd world to 2nd world and eventually, to 1st world … and that means rising incomes for its residents. This type of information is invaluable for corporate executives evaluating new markets for their products or services.
Implications of Demographic Population Forecasting
The implications of these predictions are far reaching. Company executives can literally map out the globe from a 30,000 foot perspective and see where the opportunities lie and the associated risks they will encounter. Looking a bit deeper at things like average taxation rate, government debt and GDP composition will allow executives to accurately predict future economic performance for decades to come. After all, a population only grows one year older every 12 months, so their behavior can easily be forecast for 20, 30 or even 40 years.