Patrick Schwerdtfeger is a leading authority on global business trends and uses demographic input data extensively to model and forecast economies around the world. Population demographics provide extensive insights of a country’s future economic performance including the country’s consumer spending (which is the largest single component of gross domestic product) and social unrest (generally a function of the percentage of youth within the population). Patrick is a regular speaker for Bloomberg TV and gave his first TEDx Talk in August 2012. He is the author of the award-winning book “Marketing Shortcuts for the Self-Employed” (Wiley, 2011) and has spoken at business conventions and conferences around the world. His MEICAP demographic forecasting model predicts American long-term macro economic performance until 2050 and beyond. When economic predictions are based on demographic inputs, similar long-term forecasts are equally possible for countries around the world.
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Recent speaking destinations include:
Keynote Speech on Demographic Population Analysis
Since consumer spending generally accounts for the single largest component of GDP (gross domestic product) for most countries, and since consumer spending is comprised of the local population buying food, energy, shelter, clothing and entertainment, GDP can be forecasted easily by analyzing the country’s expected population growth. Using the same information, you can also predict the entitlement obligations for older generations and the social unrest from younger ones. Patrick can customize his presentation to focus on the countries your audience is most interested in.
Social unrest is almost always correlated with “youth bulges” in a population. When the baby boom in America reached their late teenage years, there were protests across the country. At the time, the Vietnam War was the catalyst but it could’ve been anything. More recently, the same demographic age profile led to the Arab Spring across the Middle East. Young under-employed men in particular are the most likely to protest. So any country with a lot of young (age 15 to 25) frustrated men will most likely experience some political volatility along the way.
Implications of Demographic Population Forecasting
The implications of these predictions are far reaching. Company executives can literally map out the globe from a 30,000 foot perspective and see where the opportunities lie and the associated risks they will encounter. Looking a bit deeper at things like average taxation rate, government debt and GDP composition will allow executives to accurately predict future economic performance for decades to come. After all, a population only grows one year older every 12 months, so their behavior can easily be forecast for 20, 30 or even 40 years.